Guggenheim CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust ETF (ETF:FXE ...

Recession Imminent

Introducing the newest brand of full-blown autism™, I present to you the California / Europe ultimate bear portfolio! Based on a special blend of my extra chromosomes and a spicy mix of hate for California, this portfolio will blow average market returns out of the water based on the following assumptions (Cetaris Paribus):
  1. The world will enter a large economic recession within the next 12 months.
  2. Many Currency values will fall relative to others, however the Euro will be hit among the hardest.
  3. As unprofitable companies no longer have access to liquid credit or financing they will have to restructure their debt in some form.
  4. The highest density of unprofitable companies will continue to exist in California, and local California municipalities will not plan accordingly for a recession.
  5. European markets in general will fall quicker and with more momentum than US equity markets.
Feedback and thoughts requested please.

Symbol & Exchange Description Instrument Position Strategy Allocation (%)
CHF/EUR FOREX ICE Swiss Frank vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 10
6EH2021 CME Euro Futures March 2021 Futures Contract Short 10
FXE NYSEARCA Invesco Currency Shares Euro Currency ETF ETF 15JAN 2021 $98 Strike Put Contract Long 10
GBP/EUR FOREX ICE Pound Sterling vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 15
USD/EUR FOREX ICE U.S. Dollar vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
CMF NYSEARCA California Municipal Bond ETF ETF Short 5
PZA NYSEARCA Invesco Nation AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF ETF Short 5
AUD/USD FOREX OANDA Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
EZU BATS iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF ETF 15MAY2020 $37 Strike Put Contract Long 15
GDX NYSEARCA VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF ETF 15JAN2021 $35 Strike Call Contract Long 20
Edit: Typo, wrote put instead of call for GDX. Shame tables don't copy over from word / excel and you have to retype yourself.
submitted by chaney3 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

BPI Invest US Equity Index Feeder UITF now multi-class/multi-currency - USD/PHP

Info now out on the BPI's peso-denominated US equity feeder fund. Created an update post for more visibility. Original post by u/jmnativ: https://www.reddit.com/phinvest/comments/dsb38b/bpi_amtc_is_launching_a_new_fund_bpi_invest_us/
It's simply the Peso version of their US Equity Index feeder: https://www.bpiassetmanagement.com/pages/bpi-us-equity-index-feeder-fund that uses the SPY ETF. It has the same fee structure:
Trust Fee 0.7500% per annum payable to the Trustee, BPI AMTC
Custodianship Fees 0.0084% payable to the Third-Party Custodian of the Fund, Bank of New York Mellon
External Auditor Fee 0.0082% payable to the External Auditor of the Fund, Isla Lipana & Co.
Broker's Fee 0.0300% payable to the brokers / dealers for the buying / selling of shares / units of the Target Fund
Total 0.7966% (at least, if other expenses like taxes are not included)
Note that SPY's gross expense ratio by itself is 0.0945%
Investment amounts:
Unit Classes Class A (USD Class) Class P (Philippine Peso Class)
Minimum Initial Investment USD 1,000 PHP 50,000
Minimum Transaction Amount USD 500 PHP 10,000
From their FAQ:
If I invest in Unit “Class P” and the general consensus is stronger or weaker USD against major currencies, how will this affect me as an investor?
As a Unit “Class P” investor, should the US Dollar strengthen against the Philippine Peso, you stand to benefit on stronger US Dollar due to unrealized foreign exchange gains. On the other hand, should the US Dollar weaken against the Philippine Peso, you may experience additional volatility due to unrealized foreign exchange losses.
Note, however, that the NAVPU of the unit classes also reflects the daily marking-to-market of the underlying investments of the target fund. As such, we emphasize that clients are not encouraged to subscribe into the BPI Invest US Equity Index Feeder Fund Unit “Class P” to hedge foreign exchange risk. Unit “Class P” was designed primarily to provide convenient access to global outlets for investors with Philippine Peso.
---
So ultimately, it just provides the convenience that you don't have to buy USD to invest. The minimum transaction amount is also lower. The exchange risk is there whether you invest in USD or PHP... if you eventually will spend the investment proceeds in PHP. If one can buy and sell USD at better than bank rates, it may be better to invest in USD fund since BPI probably earns a little bit more on the forex spread.
I guess BPI just has to be clearer when stating the performance of the USD class and the PHP class, since the latter also effectively includes the exchange rate performance of USD vs PHP.
submitted by AmbisyosongAhedres to phinvest [link] [comments]

Ripple (XRP) Analysis (quite thorough)

NOTE: I did not write this article below. I simply copy and pasted the article. Please click the following link to view the entire article. The article includes charts and images which were not transferred to the text below.
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@lennartbedrage/the-ripple-xrp-effect-fundamental-analysis
The Ripple(XRP) Effect - Fundamental Analysis: lennartbedrage44 in cryptocurrency ripple.jpg
Lately, there’s been a tremendous amount of buzz around Ripple(XRP), but is it only because of the massive growth we’ve seen in the past few 30 days, or is there something more?
In this article, I’ll dive into a brief back ground of Ripple, objectively examine the arguments for and against it, explore its potential from a economic standpoint, then close with potential threats to your investment and a summary.
Meet Ripple(XRP)-
Released in 2012, Ripple aims to enable “secure, instant and nearly free global financial transactions of any size with no chargebacks” through their real-time gross settlement system (RTGS) and currency exchange and remittance network. Ripples distributed open-source internet protocol consensus ledger was created as basic technology for interbank and regulated financial institutions to integrate Ripple into their own systems. This differs from the Bitcoin full node and other crowdsourced altcoin consensus networks in several ways:
Ripples common shared ledger is a network of independent validating servers which compare their transaction records, rather than the full network of nodes coming to consensus prior to each transaction, enabling faster transaction speeds. Although their protocol is open source, it was not created as a plug & play solution, like bitcoins full-node software, nor does it rely on crowd-sourced support. Unlike Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and other Alt-coins, Ripple is recognized as legal tender by several governments, which gives it instant liquidity via financial institution, as well as purchasing power over material goods. Because of this, it cannot be evaluated in the same ways as other coins, which are largely evaluated based on assumptions & speculation. In terms of value, it’s more like cash than a commodity. Because of this, it is evaluated in a much different way than Ethereum(ETH) and other alt-coins with intrinsic value, but is accepted much more rapidly because it’s easy for the mass-market to understand. Remember: without market acceptance, there is not value, regardless of how innovative something may be.
Just 4 short years after its release, on 01MAY17, Ripple announced that a consortium of 47 banks have successfully completed a pilot implementation of Ripple in Japan, making it the first country in the world to enable domestic and international real time money transfers via the cryptocurrency. This event lead the XRP value to sky-rocket from $0.051580 USD to an all-time high of $0.430085 in just 16 days… but why? Is it 100% speculation, or is there something else going on here?
“It’s not a real cryptocurrency!” Or is it? Well, those whom bring this argument to the table are probably referencing facts that I’ve mention during my introduction to Ripple: Its a centralized and regulated crypto-currency which does not need global consensus for transfers, and it is built specifically for (and potentially by) financial institutions. Though a lot of the Anarcho-Capitalists may want to steer clear of this one due to its highly regulated nature, regular capitalist may believe these core differences to be its greatest strengths:
Regulated - As I mentioned in my analysis on Ethereum(ETH), Bitcoin’s lack of regulation was likely he reason (or at least, that’s what they told us) that the proposed ETF failed to pass the SEC’s evaluation several months ago. If adhering to some sort of trusted regulatory standards, this could drive federal confidence, which in turn drive bank and lending institution faith…trickling all the way down to the consumers. This insures rapid mass market acceptance. Consensus - As mentioned before this is much different process than Bitcoin’s global consensus, which means that transaction times are nearly instant regardless of volume transferred. Additionally, all transfers adhere to distributive ledgers DLT standards, which is a requirement for many financial institutions to be insurable. Institutional Management - You’ve probably guessed this one already. Although the demand and speculative value is driven at some capacity by ‘the people’, this currency is about as close to the World bank and SWIFT as you can get. This is largely due to the amount Deliberate - It feels like a big bank, because it is. Ripple was built specifically for the financial markets, which is why they specifically targeted regulatory compliance. shutterstock_289877267_long_read_cover_large.jpg
Economic Value As mentioned in the last point, Its easy to see that Ripple offers tremendous value to financial-institutions and retail investors. These two groups make up 358 billion (numbers from 2013) non-cash cross-country annual transactions, and the FOREX market which sees more than $5.1 trillion $USD each day. Per a report released by Capgemini and The Royal Bank of Scotland, this is growing at an average rate of about 7.5% each year globally, though China and other Emerging Asian economies have been leading the charge at around 21%.
Seems like a lot, right? Well, for sake of uncovering the immediate value of XRP, we will zoom into the recent adopters of the distributed ledger technology: Japan, India, and the Central Europe, Middle East & Africa(CEMEA) regions.
Japan.jpg
Japan is the third largest economy in the world by nominal GDP ($6.11 trillion), fourth by purchasing power parity(PPP) and second largest developed economy. Currently, their GDP per capita is roughly $48,412 (vs $56,430 in US) and their major trade partners include the US, China, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea.
Japan GDP.png
Aside from the speculation that they maybe soon pressure their trade partners (excluding the US and China) to adopt a system which allows for instant, near free transfers of funds, here’s where it gets interesting for the immediate future: Japan has already started accepting Ripple(XRP) as legal tender. If Ripple raises to just 25% of the overall transaction volume of P2P, P2B & B2B within Japan itself (represented in the chart by Other Services, Real Estate, Retail, Transport, Communications, Finance & Utilities) which is equal to about 20% of their overall economy, Ripple would be handling roughly $1.27 trillion USD in Japan – alone - every year. To put that in perspective, the current (at the time of writing) market capitalization of Bitcoin(BTC) is $30.7 billion USD (or >0.4%). Unlike Bitcoin, Ripple is legal tender which means that it can be exchanged for material goods and services, which means that it’s likely to have explosive acceptance in the local area.
India.jpg
India-based Axis Bank announced in April that they will soon begin leveraging distributed ledger tech for cross-border transactions and to make banking simple and convenient for their customers. About 15 days’ prior, another large financial institution, Yes Bank, also announced that they would be adopting Ripples ledger for the same reasons. If Ripple continues to grow in acceptance at this rate in India, we could see another economy, roughly 1/3 the size of Japan’s ($2.074 trillion USD) add to Ripples annual transaction value. Now, from an economic stand point, this is most interesting because agriculture represents more than 50% of India’s employment, which means that India would be the 2nd case of consumer trading Ripple for staple foods.
India GDP.png
It is likely that Ripple will not handle as large of a percentage of overall transaction volumes in India because only two major banks have adopted this currency and it is not the only Crypto. The latter is probably one of the most important variables, as this means that Ripple will be duking it out for market dominancy. As all of my projections are fairly conservative, I would estimate that Ripple will handle roughly 10% of India’s over all transaction volume in the next 365 days, equal to roughly $311.1 billion USD.
One last thing that I would like to mention is that India is literally the ‘I’ in BRIC and roughly 13% of the BRIC countries total output. If the BRIC comes to fruition, India may be able to convince it’s other close trade partners to jump on the XRP-Train as well.
Dubai.jpg
Abu Dhabi Bank, the National and largest bank of the UAE, has already begun offering cross-border transaction services with Ripples distributive ledger technology as well. As they deal extensively with their middle eastern neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the UAE is likely to set a trend for other CEMEA countries to follow.
UAE GDP.png
This might be a surprise to some people, but Dubai’s largest industry is the energy sector (shocker!) followed closely by Real Estate and their Finance industry (double shocker!). Although their GPD is much smaller than Japan and India’s (about $370 billion USD), I am anticipating Ripple to handle a larger percent of the UAE’s transaction volume (31.11%), especially in the finance, Real Estate, Retail and Logistics industries. This is due largely to the fact that their population is only roughly 9.157 million, but most Abu Dhabi nationals are very financially inclined (or at least heavy spenders).
Potential Threats As this threatens SWIFT (unless they are completely on board) and the US dollars’ supremacy in the economic & financial markets, I would not be surprised to see a false flag attack, in which the NSA attacks Ripple and blames it on North Korea or China. Frankly, this would be a cake walk compared to Stuxnet or WannaCry and they could probably hand the task to an MIT intern. Where semi-centralization is Ripples strength in terms of transaction speed and regulation, it is also the biggest security flaw and may open it’s user to some heart ache, hair loss and heavy drinking over the next several years.
Possibility So, what is possible in terms of value over the next few years? Well, if we consider the following scenario:
XRP accounts for roughly 20% of Japan, India full GDP, but 31.1% UAE’s GDP ($7.152 Trillion USD) total exchange volume in the next 2 years Max XRP Supply stays at 100 billion No other countries adopt XRP (not likely) No hacks or other catastrophic events remove confidence Exclude speculation, demand, rallies, and GDP growth projections for each country Then we’re looking at each Ripple(XRP) market capitalization over ~$1.75 Trillion USD, making each coin $17.52 in real value. This means that if you were to invest today at $0.362794, your ROI would be about 4,989%. That said, I think that it’s likely it will go over $30 in the next 2 years, due to speculators flooding the markets and other countries signing up. Again, these are conservative numbers are based on total transaction value in USD equivalent.
For those whom subscribe, I will update as new variables are available to my appraisal
Bottom Line Although it was most definitely created by an insider of the banking industry and does not ‘feel like a crypto’, I personally feel that due to its rapid market acceptance, liquidity and position as legal tender in 3 large economies, Ripple(XRP) is both primed for explosive growth in the near future and likely to be one of the safest value based Crypto-investments we can make today.
Another thing, China is the anchor of the West Pacific, so we should all watch their evaluation of Ripple, very closely. If they were to jump on the XRP-Train, you are likely to see Australia, South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore do the same.
If you enjoyed this article, be sure to share & subscribe, as I have kept my proprietary models and will update as major events and additional countries begin to adopt this currency. If you feel that I have missed something or am just flat out wrong, please be sure to let me know in the comments below!
Planned articles for the next 14 days:
ICO advice from a Venture Capitalist (Follower Request) Paper Wallets (Follower Request) VIVA Analysis (Follower Request) Segregated Witness(Segwit) : Friend or Foe? A Kraken ate my gains... Fundamental Analysis: Stellar Lumens(XLM) Dual-Citizenship and Banking in Panama Rich vs. Wealthy All analysis, numbers and projections are my own. Core information was gathered from reliable sources, such as the World Bank, IMF, CIA world fact book, eia.gov and more.
submitted by ripcurldog to Ripple [link] [comments]

My experience with Norbit's Gambit [google sheets link included]

Just want to share my experience doing Norbit's Gambit, for anyone that may want to learn on my experience, or tell me all the ways in which I am wrong.
I've posted a question earlier, asking how to make sure the market didn't swing in the wrong direction. And yes, I understand it's called a "gambit" for a reason.
=== TL;DR === - Wanted to save $65 on currency conversion while buying CAD $3,500 worth of US stock - Overestimated forex fee, underestimated NG cost - Murphy happened... - Lost potential gains of CAD $185.80 while waiting - Is the gambit ever worth it?
=== The goal === - On August 25th, use about CAD $3,500 to buy some US Netflix (NFLX) shares
=== The method === - Buy DLR in CAD - Call brokerage to journal over to US side - Sell DLR.U in USD - Buy NFLX with USD
In a lot of my research, I've been told the "fee" when going through the brokerage (Questrade in my case) is 2%. That's not too accurate.
=== The brokerage Forex rate/fee === So I assumed 2% of $3,500 would be $70.
However it's really an addition of 199 basis points to the exchange rate. I believe they use the closing exchange rate on the date of the transaction.
So if the exchange was 1.2500, it's 1.2699, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 787.46 ($USD 12.54 short of ideal $USD 800). If we convert 12.54 to CAD, it's $CAD 15.68 or 1.568% on the original $CAD 1000.
But if the exchange is 1.2200, it's 1.2399, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 806.51 ($USD 13.16 short of ideal $USD 819.67). If we convert 13.16 to CAD, it's $CAD 16.06 of 1.606% of the original $CAD 1000
The "conversion fee" is dependent on the exchange rate, but I can't figure out a quick direct way to calculate what the "fee" would be in source currency %. The closest guesstimate is to divide the basis points by the current exchange rate, as below:
On August 25th, the exchange rate was 1.2483. So the above guesstimate for the Forex "fee" would be $55.80. Or more accurately $54.91, close enough. Still, that's 21.5% lower than the broad *$70** estimate earlier.*
=== The NG effective fee === Here once again, the common consensus is that the NG's fee is just a cost of buying and selling an ETF. So, with QT's free ETF purchases, the guesstimate is just about $5 for the selling commission.
When I bought DLR ETF on August 25th, I got it for CAD $12.42 per share (that's not the day's close price, but what I actually paid). the US side of DLR.U is always US $9.93. The gives the DLR Exchange Rate of 1.2508... already different from the ideal 1.2483 (I suppose that's how the ETF makes money)
So, it would appear the cost/fee of NG is just CAD $0.99 + US $5.94 (CAD $8.40)... but not quite. Let's look as the actual US dollar amounts. Since we can only buy whole shares of DLR + ECN fee, from this point I am converting CAD $3,502.44 + $0.99 = $3,503.43
The difference between the ideal US $amount and what I am left with is the "fee" for doing NG. US $12.24, or CAD $15.28. This sets the NG's Effective Exchange Rate as 1.2538 or a "NG's fee" of 0.44%. Please note that this rate/fee is *based on the converted amount*: the more you convert, the less/cheaper it is.
So comparing the actual cost of NG vs QT's auto conversion and the guesstimates is quite different - Actual $15.28 vs $54.91 ($39.63 spread) - Guesstimate $5 vs $70 ($65 spread)
=== The Time factor === Now that I have US $2,794.32, let's buy some NFLX. The date now is Sept 5th (yes, the NG completed earlier, but I am human... also QT didn't call me when the journaling was completed so I got sidetracked).
Before doing the NG, I calculated that NFLX dropped about 2.02% in 10 days. It could also go up by same amount. That 2.02% rise on CAD $3,500 value would be a gain of $70.7... comparable to $65 guesstimate loss of doing currency auto-conversion through QT (QTAC). So in my analysis, at worth case it would be a wash, in best case I save some money on NG. ... We already know now that the actual cost of QTAC is much less ....
This was the end result of my NG: spent CAD $3,503.43 and 11 days later I have a US stock+cash Portfolio of value US $2,789.37
But considering the increase in NFLX stock over those 11 days, what if I would have just went with Questrade's Auto-conversion (QTAC) route?
In 11 days, the value of NFLX is @178.79 - Current value of 16 NFLX shares = US $2,860.64 - Plus cash US $77.57 for a Total Portfolio Value of US $2,938.21
If, on August 25th, I would have auto converted currency with QT and bought NFLX, I would have a portfolio value of US $2,938.21 on September 5th.
Instead, starting the Norbit's Gambit on August 25th, I bought NFLX on Sept 5th and have a portfolio value of US $2,789.37
Instead of saving a guesstimate of CAD $65, I have lost potential gains of US $148.84 or CAD $185.80
=== Murphy... or Loonie... whatever === In all of above, I tried to keep the currency fluctuations isolated. So apart from initial conversion on August 25th, all my future (September 5th) portfolio values were in USD. But as Murphy would have it, the BoC rate announcement made the loonie stronger in between my NG.
Based on above, doing QT auto-conversion - On August 25th, nets US $2,762.52 - On September 5th, nets US $2,817.62 I would have got US $55.10 more just by doing the QTAC later.
If I would have bought NFLX on September 5th after doing QTAC - 15 whole shares @178.79 + $4.95 comm leaves me with US $130.82 in cash - Total NFLX + Cash portfolio value of US $2,812.67
That's still US $23.30 more than doing the NG, although still less than just buying NFLX outright on August 25th and letting it grow.
=== Final conclusion === Smaller amount (CAD $3,500) for NG for a stock purchase that could/did swing 6% was not worth it. Loonie getting stronger also made the whole exercise fruitless, but even eliminating the currency fluctuation, the growth of the stock outperformed the savings of NG.
Playing with my numbers, assuming the currency fluctuation is fixed, for CAD $3,500, doing Norbit's Gambit vs Questrade's Auto-Conversion is breaking even when the stock appreciation is no more than 1.18% during the time it takes to complete NG (11 days in my case). Even if you are more punctual and can complete it in 5 days, you still need to make sure the stock doesn't appreciate more than 1.18% in 5 days.
By comparison, if converting CAD $10,000, it's break even if stock rises 1.27% during that time. When doing CAD $50,000 then 1.31%
Hmm.... so even at high amounts of CAD $50,000 the tolerance to stock fluctuation is pretty low. So is it worth it?
Ultimately I've:
For anyone that cares, here is public Google Sheets docs to verify my math (File -> Make a copy, in order to edit values) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nH8Q_0cKFtFTW_yomASHtpLXN6oYuTgkXeTNAMkQGY/edit?usp=sharing
submitted by hydraSlav to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

[Investments] Are there any UK based GBP ETFs?

I want to invest in the GBP in anticipation of it rising after a "stay" vote in the EU referendum. I want to avoid Forex if possible, so what I am looking for is an ETF that tracks the value of GBP vs USD or another non-EU currency.
There appear to be a few US ETFs for this but I can find none in the UK. Does anyone know of one or of another way I can invest in GBP in the week before the referendum?
submitted by w0rk_acc0unt to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

Lessons in Global Macro Trading Using Veritaseum’s UltraCoin BTC-Based Swaps: Speculation Capabilities That Surpass Even The Largest Hedge Funds & Investment Banks Pt. 1

We will be posting a series of tutorials on how to trade over 45,000 tickers, with leverage of up to 10,000x using only our smart contracts-enabled bitcoin wallet and peer to peer swaps. We will be covering how you can use thorough fundamental and macro-economic research to setup various trades in the system and model said trades using our Ultracoin modeling tool. A little about the UltraCoin wallet: It is a peer to peer system, it allows for its users to trade exposure to not only bitcoin, litecoin, Ripple and all of the major (and minor) forex pairs, but over 45,000 tickers of all of the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, indices, ETFs commodities and currencies. Since the trades are peer to peer, Veritaseum and the UltraCoin system doesn’t hold any of your assets, hence you are not exposed to our balance sheet, credit, default or counterparty risks (the blockchain is your effective counterparty). I believe we are the only trading or exchange system that can make such a claim. You can always track your bitcoin through the blockchain at any time. We also offer pricing leverage, of up to 10,000x! We are still in beta, though, and although we are confident the system is working, beta does mean beta. Caveat Emptor! Before we get started setting up trades, I would first like for you to: Read through the tutorial (which may not have all of the latest features described, but we will get to those in this article) - View the sample trade video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV27kQnUKHc Download the trade modeling spreadsheet -http://ultra-coin.com/index.php/download-now/summary/1-ultracoin-downloads/274-veritaseum-s-ultracoin-trade-modelling-spreadsheet A quick example of a simple trade setup: Currency SWAP A portfolio manager is having exposure to different currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, YEN and CNY. The portfolio manager wants to hedge currency fluctuation. Base currency of portfolio is EUR SWAP CONTRACT DETAILS RECEIVE: EUR=X PAY:USD=X
Now, to up the ante in terms of risk vs reward, you can add leverage to the pie. This is accomplished by going into the advanced tab and raising the leverage amount from "0". The higher the leverage, the more volatility in the returns, and the higher the probability you will exhaust your principal+collateral. For that reason, you should cushion against having your contract unwound (our version of getting "stopped out") by adding to your collateral amount, which is evident in the same "Advanced" dialog as the leverage controls. You also have the option of adjusting granular start, stop and cancel times for the contract. By modeling this trade with our trade design spreadsheet you can visually and numerically see the effects of adjusting leverage in each direction as well as increasing and decreasing collateral, principal and the length of the contract. There's a lot of information in the 2nd and 3rd tabs of the sheet. Please take advantage of it.
Hedge the future cash flows or the asset prices by creating currency SWAP contracts for foreign currencies against home currency. Read this link for in depth breakdown off a multifaceted trade, and more importanly the fundamental and macro research that went into the trade setup: http://www.ultra-coin.com/index.php/homes/item/89-is-the-danish-krona-peg-to-euro-more-fragile-than-glass-beads-the-danish-national-bank-infers-so
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Lessons in Global Macro Trading Using Veritaseum’s UltraCoin BTC-Based Swaps: Speculation Capabilities That Surpass Even The Largest Hedge Funds & Investment Banks Pt. 1

We will be posting a series of tutorials on how to trade over 45,000 tickers, with leverage of up to 10,000x using only our smart contracts-enabled bitcoin wallet and peer to peer swaps. We will be covering how you can use thorough fundamental and macro-economic research to setup various trades in the system and model said trades using our Ultracoin modeling tool. A little about the UltraCoin wallet: It is a peer to peer system, it allows for its users to trade exposure to not only bitcoin, litecoin, Ripple and all of the major (and minor) forex pairs, but over 45,000 tickers of all of the major asset classes - stocks, bonds, indices, ETFs commodities and currencies. Since the trades are peer to peer, Veritaseum and the UltraCoin system doesn’t hold any of your assets, hence you are not exposed to our balance sheet, credit, default or counterparty risks (the blockchain is your effective counterparty). I believe we are the only trading or exchange system that can make such a claim. You can always track your bitcoin through the blockchain at any time. We also offer pricing leverage, of up to 10,000x! We are still in beta, though, and although we are confident the system is working, beta does mean beta. Caveat Emptor! Before we get started setting up trades, I would first like for you to: Read through the tutorial (which may not have all of the latest features described, but we will get to those in this article) - View the sample trade video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV27kQnUKHc Download the trade modeling spreadsheet -http://ultra-coin.com/index.php/download-now/summary/1-ultracoin-downloads/274-veritaseum-s-ultracoin-trade-modelling-spreadsheet A quick example of a simple trade setup: Currency SWAP A portfolio manager is having exposure to different currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, YEN and CNY. The portfolio manager wants to hedge currency fluctuation. Base currency of portfolio is EUR SWAP CONTRACT DETAILS RECEIVE: EUR=X PAY:USD=X
Now, to up the ante in terms of risk vs reward, you can add leverage to the pie. This is accomplished by going into the advanced tab and raising the leverage amount from "0". The higher the leverage, the more volatility in the returns, and the higher the probability you will exhaust your principal+collateral. For that reason, you should cushion against having your contract unwound (our version of getting "stopped out") by adding to your collateral amount, which is evident in the same "Advanced" dialog as the leverage controls. You also have the option of adjusting granular start, stop and cancel times for the contract. By modeling this trade with our trade design spreadsheet you can visually and numerically see the effects of adjusting leverage in each direction as well as increasing and decreasing collateral, principal and the length of the contract. There's a lot of information in the 2nd and 3rd tabs of the sheet. Please take advantage of it.
Hedge the future cash flows or the asset prices by creating currency SWAP contracts for foreign currencies against home currency. Read this link for in depth breakdown off a multifaceted trade, and more importanly the fundamental and macro research that went into the trade setup: http://www.ultra-coin.com/index.php/homes/item/89-is-the-danish-krona-peg-to-euro-more-fragile-than-glass-beads-the-danish-national-bank-infers-so
submitted by Reggie-Middleton to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA full-time Bitcoin day-trader, blogger, and explainer. I was a pro TCG player. Here until Midnight EST. AMA!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-02-20
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Let's say someone was looking for a stay at home computer job, would you recommend doing what you do? Is it something you can hop into, or is it something a lot of time must be put into before considerable income comes? You handle risk and pressure well, and you don't let your emotions guide your decision-making. Professional Poker and TCG players often develop this skillset.
You have experience working with stocks, bonds, derivatives, foreign exchange, or other financial instruments. If you have a strong mathematical background, that would also likely fulfill this.
You can invest significant capital into trading while remaining financially secure if it all suddenly vanishes.
You are capable of constantly monitoring a situation, waking up in the middle of the night if an alarm goes off, etc. It requires serious dedication.
You are good at keeping up with news, understanding market psychology, and "feeling" shifts in attitude and perception among other market participants.
Of those, I'd be most cautious if you don't meet no. 3. Going bust is a real possibility--day-trading a volatile commodity is inherently extremely high-risk. Nos. 2 and 4 are the easiest to learn or force through routine. No. 1 requires a person who approaches things in an emotionally detached manner. No. 5 is something that comes with investing enough time.
Second question: I'm answering this after that big block of text because this answer will come off like a get-rich-quick scheme. Yes, you can hop into it very quickly, and you can start making very high profits very quickly. I put in a small initial investment to test the waters, and made 10% on it in a few days. If you have the right skillset, composure, and resources, yes. It is a potentially very lucrative and exciting stay-at-home job. It is not for everyone, though.
As much as it would be beneficial for me (being in the industry and all), to tell everyone it's easy and that it will help them provide for themselves I feel that people need to know the real risks that are involved. Regardless, that's all a little irrelevant. We're not playing the house, and we're not flipping coins. We're playing other investors, and we're making actual decisions. You keep saying things like "98% lose money" and "Go onto any FOREX forum, and you will see from the users posts that they pretty much all lose money" but you don't back it up. Cool, yeah, it's a zero-sum game with a rake: a little more than half of the players will lose. That's expected. They'll probably complain about it, too, huh?
Retrospect can have a very positive effect. Got any real account trading statements I can have a look at? Let's see how fast you can come up with excuses not to show me ;) I only have and need one: I have chosen not to disclose my personal valuation for privacy reasons. Same reason I've had all along. I instead publicly disclose my trades, as they happen, on my website. The posts are timestamped, and the ones that are the start of a position contain the price I entered at. Go check the posts, then go check the charts, then go check my archive. But feel free to continue to arbitrarily call my credibility into question--that makes your argument better!
What leverage do you use? In Australia the leverage is typically 100:1, perhaps that's why your not seeing how risky I deem it to be. First, our argument so far has had nothing to do with risk. Second, I told you I am leveraged 2.5:1, two posts ago. Third, you realize I'm trading Bitcoin, not ForEx, correct? And that no one in their right mind would offer 100:1 leverage on Bitcoin due to its volatility?
What's your last year's hourly salary? A year ago I was finishing up college and extricating myself from the TCG business I'd co-founded. I took very little in take-home pay over that period, but kept part ownership of the continuing business. Money isn't just about the number on your bank account--it's also about residual future income.
How many hours a week are you typically on a computer? On a computer, probably 50-55, if you add in time I spend on my phone, I'd say 65-70. Day trading takes constant watchfulness. I imagine it's like an easier version of taking care of a baby.
What are your favorite to sources of news besides waiting for it to get to the front/hot page of /Bitcoin when it's several hours old? I have an IFTTT for /BitcoinMarkets and /Bitcoin that notifies me early on about some posts.
What's the weirdest thing about your mom? She started a bookselling business online in her 50s and makes more money than me.
Or.
She's a little old lady who loves gadgets and technology.
What are your thoughts on Dogecoin and other bitcoin competitors? Do you think any have staying value? LTC.
DOGE.
NXT.
VTC.
Coins that offer something different or that have a strong community to them can be valuable prospects.
LTC is the first-mover scrypt coin - DOGE has the most non-techies interested in its success and is spreading quickly as a result - NXT is a cool generation two coin that has a lot of features BTC doesn't have - VTC is ASIC-resistant
Ok, let me spell it out to you. The retail forex market only makes up 5% of the total forex markets liquidity. The other 95% is from hedge funds and institutions. Therefore, 99% of the retail market losing their money is very possible, as that only makes up 4.95% of the whole market. Is it possible that 4.95% of the market generally loses? Yes. How is that infeasible? Nope. That's a false equivalence. It is possible that 4.95% of the market loses. It is not feasible, that, say, 99% of people with blue eyes lose. What, exactly, in empirical terms, is the difference between retail investors and hedge/institutions that causes this INCREDIBLE disparity? Would you care to respond to my above empirical argument that demonstrates that a zero-decision system is flipping a losing coin? Do you consider it feasible for 99% of people playing a 45-55 game to lose?
Are there options and/or futures markets for Bitcoin? Not really yet, but there will be more prominent ones soon. I hear about a new one pretty regularly, it seems, but nothing that seems truly legitimate has come out. I'm certainly excited for them, though.
Eventually, once Mr. Lawsky and co. get things sorted out, I'm certain we'll see a big-name investment bank start offering them.
From the time you started trading until today, what is your overall percentage return? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Ben, i told you I'd be here and asking about Hearthstone first. If there's one class that needs a bit of tuning, up or down, which is it and why? I think Mage needs basic, class-level tuning. I'm not sure what needs to be done exactly, but I don't like what the Mage class power does to gameplay. I've thought some about how different it would be if it could only hit minions, and I'd want to know if Blizzard had tried that out. The Mage power is too versatile, and over the long-term I think it will prove to be problematic.
What's your favorite card? Lord Jaraxxus is my favorite card. He has a truly legendary feel to him when you play him, but your opponent can still win, even though he's very powerful.
So, where do you think we go from here? I'm currently short, but I don't expect to be so for a lot longer. I don't think we'll get past 550. I also don't expect this drop to hold on for a really long time.
I haven't seen a good, substantive rationale for what the MtGox situation really has to do with Bitcoin price. Yes, it looks bad, it certainly doesn't help with our legitimacy, but is it really worth the incredible price declines we continue to see? I don't think so. I think we are seeing these impressive declines because the price on MtGox (which is a reflection of trust in MtGox relative to Bitcoin price, not just Bitcoin price) has been declining heavily. I don't expect it to continue forever, especially not with things like the Winkdex and the accompanying ETF launching.
MtGox is basically dead to me, for now at least. The sooner everyone stops paying attention to it, the sooner we can all get back on track, which I, for one, will be quite happy about.
Do you think that it's a good thing for a game when the developers of that game discourage certain playing styles (e.g. mill decks or decks that try to win in unconventional manners) whether in hearthstone, MTG, or other TCGs? It can be. I don't want the developers metaphorically over my shoulder outlawing strategies, but I don't mind if the strategies that are "less fun" for your opponent (Draw/Go, Mill, or Hard Combo from MTG, for example) are also less powerful. Most players prefer a game where the best decks are also among the most fun, because it means that they are playing against fun decks more often. Clearly the 2-cost 3/3 will be played most often. If you fix this by making both 2-cost guys 2/2s or 3/3s, or by making one a 2/3 and the other a 3/2, then you've done something--but it's not that interesting. If you instead make the 2-cost 2/2 have text that says "While you control the 3-cost 3/3, this gets +2/+2" and you give the 3 cost 3/3 text that says "While you control the 2-cost 2/2, it has Taunt" you now have more complex cards that reward players for doing something other than just playing the best stand-alone card.
Which do you think is a better option to encourage diversity in TCGs; improving/buffing cards/decks that hardly see any play versus weakening/nerfing cards that are overwhelmingly played? This is obviously a very simplistic example, but I hope it makes the point. Games are more fun when you give players more relevant choices: buffing and nerfing cards tends not to do that as well as promoting synergies does.
Where/what is the actual money behind bitcoin? If it does exist. You might need to rephrase your question for me to understand what you're asking. If you're asking why a Bitcoin has value, the answer is the same as any other good: because someone is willing to pay it.
If you're asking why someone is willing to pay that amount, my answer would be utility.
I just got started on Bitfinex (using your referral link) and am a little intimidated. What types of trades would I recommend I try as a beginner? From there, just keep careful watch, and see what happens. Be neutral and objective toward your own hypothesis, just like in science. Don't be biased by your hopes, be focused on the reality.
So far I've only done a liquidity swap offer to try it since it seemed (nearly) risk free. Have you done any liquidity swap or is it too low in profit? If I'm not going to be able to check my computer for a day or two, or I'm uncertain of what's going to happen the next few days, I do use the liquidity swap function. It's actually very profitable, relative to traditional investments. And you're right, it is low-risk. I'm a fan. Good job selecting it if you were intimidated--that's a good place to start. As far as actually starting trading, do science. Start with a hypothesis. If you were up at 5 AM today when MtGox published their announcement, a good hypothesis might have been something like: "This announcement is going to be a blow to their credibility, and might panic the markets. We'll probably drop by some amount as a result." Invest based on it, figure out around what price you want to take profits, and at what price you'll cut your losses and get out. Stick to those determinations unless something substantive changes. The time you tell yourself you can afford to not close your position because it will "rebound" back to where you want is also the time you lose your shirt.
Is it true that you like Balloons? No, I <3 them.
Lol to the question about your mom... Ben, from my understanding Bitcoin is anonymous, does this mean that you can avoid taxation when receiving payment? Bitcoin isn't anonymous. That's actually a common misconception. It's actually pseudonymous, like Reddit. You end up with an online identity--a wallet address--that you use with Bitcoin.
If I walk up to you on a street corner and buy Bitcoin with cash, then I'm pretty much anonymous. If I buy it from a large institution like Coinbase or some other company, they will have records of the address my Bitcoin was bought for. As a result, you can trace them down, generally speaking.
As for avoiding taxation, that's a general no.
What do you think Bitcoin's biggest hurdle is and how do you think it can be overcome? Are there any misconceptions about Bitcoin that you think people have? The biggest hurdle for Bitcoin to overcome is governments. Governments have a variety of reasons not to want an alternative currency. We seem to have done pretty well on that front here in the US, but for other countries (China) that is not the case. Past that, the other major hurdle is something I consider an inevitability: consumer adoption. Business adoption has begun in earnest, consumer adoption hasn't. It will when enough businesses take Bitcoin to give it sufficient utility for the average customer.
What trading platform do you use to daytrade Bitcoin? What is the standard margin that Bitcoin brokers offer? what's the typical ask/bid spread? I primarily use Bitfinex.
Very few Bitcoin brokers currently offer leverage, Bitfinex offers 2.5:1. Over time, I anticipate it will become more like current Forex, where 10:1 or greater leverage is common.
It varies by exchange depending on their fees. Huobi charges 0% fees, so their spread is generally tiny. Some exchanges can be as wide as 1.5%. Typically, I see spreads between .5 and .7%.
Do you invest in any other type of cryptocurrency? if so, which is your favorite besides bitcoin? I currently have no other holdings, but I've held DOGE and LTC at points and am considering VTC and NXT. DOGE is probably my favorite, because if the community can keep this up for a little longer it will snowball into amaze.
Can you trade me a Jace? TMS WWK, TMS FTV, Beleren, MA, or AoT?
Beleren. M10, M11, LOR, JVC, JVCJPN, or Book Promo?
M10 and if not possible then M11. Sure.
I've been reading your blog for quite some time and especially like your summaries for recent events. Keep up the good work! Do you use strict stop-loss orders for your trades? When do you decide to close a trade? Especially in situations where you can basically see you profit/loss grow by the minute. When is enough? Do you have a longterm bitcoin investment you don't touch or do you use everything you have for trading? I do use relatively strict stop losses, but they're not stop loss orders. My conditions usually aren't just the price hitting a certain point, but instead it sustaining for a brief period, or hitting it with a certain volume, or with a certain amount of resistance to retreat. I don't want my stop loss to be triggered by some idiot who dumps 300 BTC and temporarily drops the price 15, but only ends up really dropping it 3. I am very strict with myself about this, though, generally speaking--if I can't trust promises I make to myself, what good am I?
Let's say for example you have a sum x dollar and a sum y bitcoin on your trading account. How much % of x or y do you risk at every trade? I've seen a formula for the max. amount of investment and read numerous times that traders shouldn't risk more than one or two percent of their "bankroll". Do you generally have dollar and btc or just one of them at any given time? 100% of funds in every trade, so long as all funds are easily moved into the position. Common exceptions are lack of liquidity and funds being on other exchanges. My reasoning for being all-in all-the-time is that it's a profit-maximizing move. It is also risk-maximizing. My risk tolerance is infinite; most people's isn't. Only ever one. Generally BTC if I'm long, dollar if I'm short. I prefer to double-dip, as otherwise it would be in contradiction to the 100% plan. I use everything I have for trading. Again, profit-maximization, infinite risk tolerance.
I decide a closing price when I'm near either my stop loss or my profit aim. I place a limit order or multiple limit orders wherever I need to. I avoid market orders whenever possible. Enough is when I hit my goals or my loss tolerance. I decide these at the start, but I frequently re-evaluate them as news and market conditions develop.
What is a typical bid/ask spread for Bitcoin? It depends what exchange you're looking at, but generally .5-.7%.
What's the best way to popularize Bitcoin among the masses? Add your own but would love your thoughts on: -microtransactions developing nations -gift economy (tipping) I would suggest just running around shouting "You get to be your own bank" is probably the best way.
In all seriousness, though--we don't need to try. It's going to happen on its own from now on, as the news media slowly starts to pick up the story. People will start appearing on TV talking about it with more and more frequency. Things like the Dogelympic teams are great PR and help boost it up, as well, of course, but in general it's just going to follow the adoption curve of every other technology.
If it picks up in a few developing nations that have stable internet, it will be a massive revolution for them. Self-banking can do a huge amount of good for an economy like theirs. We might see reports on that. If a major newspaper decides to run a permanent paywall like what the Sun-Times tested recently, that could be big as well. The slow PR from tipping on Reddit is another way, to be honest. Every bit helps, but the cryptocurrency community is now large enough that we're going to do a significant amount of organic, word-of-mouth style growth.
Do you think that a magic game could beat harthstone? If they do a good job, absolutely. They have to focus on the right things. It needs to be mobile-available, easy to pick up and play, and fun.
Is there a good crypto currency to get in on now, before it explodes like bitcoin did? There are plenty of options. Check out coinmarketcap.com. Fair warning, there are plenty of horrible things there--treat it kind of like penny stocks. I like BTC, LTC, DOGE, NXT, and VTC.
Also, why is it such a pain in the ass to buy them with actual money? Like you have to have bitcoins to buy other crypto currency. It's such a pain to buy them with USD because no one has made a good system to do it on, like Coinbase. If you think there's a desire, go do it!
Well the way I look at it, is how the hell else would you be able to buy them? Not everyone has piles of bitcoins lying around and I really don't want to spend $600+ on a single bitcoin just to buy some other currencies. Ah, I see the problem! You can buy fractions of a Bitcoin using Coinbase--I think .01BTC (~$6) is their minimum.
The March 2013 appreciation was from American and European investors and November 2013 was mainly from Chinese investors. Which group of people do you think will be the next to buy (I hate using the word invest when talking about bitcoin) bitcoin for investment purposes? American institutional and hobby investors. That is, Wall Street and people who pay attention to Wall Street.
Which do you think will be a better long term (~5 years) investment, Bitcoins, Litecoins, Dogecoins, Fetch Lands, Shock Lands, or Original Dual Lands? Does it change for ~10 years? Either Bitcoin or Fetch lands for 5 years. For 10 years, Bitcoin. I'd be worried about the 10-year view for paper MTG.
Ive been mining Bitcoins for years now, i have a good sum im my wallet but i never plan to use them. Does this make me a bad person? Approximately yes.
Ben, I should've simultaneously copied and pasted all of my questions from the Spreecast over to here but here are a few... It seems like the conspiracy crowd has really latched onto the idea of Bitcoin as being a discreet form of currency. If Bitcoin is backed up by the internet why would people choose having a currency that's being tracked over say cash, gold, different commodities? Having a currency be tracked has negatives and positives, but it's overwhelmingly positive for the average consumer. Because it's tracked, you don't need to pay someone to move your money for you. There also are no chargebacks, which means merchants aren't getting scammed and passing those costs onto consumers. Theft costs everyone money. It's also very fast--transactions confirm in just 10 minutes, regardless of size or where it's going. Transferring dollars from here to China is very difficult--transferring Bitcoin? Just as easy as from anywhere else to anywhere.
My job is a mix of voodoo, intuition, science, and news. In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
No, just gambling. In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Anyway, how have the profits been from start to finish compared to the market? Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Are you willing to disclose how much you have in your trading portfolio/what kind of profit you turn both % and $ wise? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
What would you say is the easiest method of shorting bitcoin or any other coin? For shorting Bitcoin or Litecoin, check here.
For other coins, there isn't really a good way yet, to the best of my knowledge. A few exchanges have plans to add short-selling, but Bitfinex is really the only one I know of that has.
What did you have for breakfast today. Didn't breakfast, was delicious.
Hey Ben, I know next to nothing about Bitcoin. I went to /bitcoin after seeing this AMA on your FB, and I noticed that everyone is going apeshit over "Gox". I have no idea what that means or why everyone is so sad/angry/suicidal. MtGox (which originally stood for Magic the Gathering Online eXchange) was the first prominent Bitcoin exchange. They've been going through some rather rough times lately, some of which I was an early cataloguer of here. In short, everyone is freaking out because the exchange may be insolvent. It's not really a big deal to Bitcoin as a whole, but it's certainly an obvious blow to credibility. In my view, people are primarily upset because MtGox has been a part of Bitcoin for a very long time, and it can be hard to let go of what we're used to. I expect that they will either fix the issues or will go out of business officially very soon.
Please explain what happened.
Tell me every artist in your iTunes. Daft Punk, detektivbyrån, Kid Cudi, Matisyahu, The White Panda.
Spotify for life, yo.
Follow up question, what % are you in BTC vs Fiat and when you are on the losing side of a trade do you find your self dumping in more to get right or do you pull the cord Unless my positions are on different exchanges or in different coins, they're all always 100% of what I'll put into that trade at entrance and exit. As a result, I end up with a binary choice: stay or reduce/close. I very rarely reduce position size, nearly always preferring to just end the position instead.
Last updated: 2014-02-25 04:57 UTC
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